Be Careful What You Wish For

Money managers that hoped for more volatility so as to improve their chances of beating the market appear to have been severely disappointed when the volatility finally arrived. As this …

“Don’t Fight the Fed”

In the immortal words of Marty Zweig, “Don’t Fight the Fed”. And the markets didn’t, which is why oil, lumber, interest rates and stocks all cratered to Powell’s tin-eared comment …

Mr. Powell Gets a Surprise

This awesome chart (courtesy of MetaStock) showing the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the G10. These indices compare actual data to Bloomberg Survey expectations. They have Economic Surprise indices for …

Lumber Liquidation

It’s not just oil that got hammered last year. Just think what has to be going on in the economy for a price collapse of that magnitude to have happened. …

How Volatile Was 2018 Really?

This chart shows the average move size for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P Index back as far as 1901 for the Dow and 1928 for the S&P. …

Panic Selling

Here is an indicator I developed back in 2016 designed to detect panic selling that is so severe, it creates a crescendo wave. Here is the criteria: 4 out of …

Performance of Stocks Experiencing Buybacks

Yesterday, I wrote about equity flows and mentioned how corporations were buying back massive amounts of stock. I want to expand on that a bit. First, announced buybacks have set …

Worst December Start Since 1931? Not quite

It’s been a rough start to the month (unless you’re a subscriber to our Three Easy Factors service). As bad as it’s been, there have been some misleading stats bandied …

Fed Tightening During Market Weakness

For the past 35 years, it’s pretty rare for the Fed to tighten when the US stock market is as weak as it has been lately (S&P 500 is down …