Mr. Powell Gets a Surprise

This awesome chart (courtesy of MetaStock) showing the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the G10. These indices compare actual data to Bloomberg Survey expectations. They have Economic Surprise indices for …

Lumber Liquidation

It’s not just oil that got hammered last year. Just think what has to be going on in the economy for a price collapse of that magnitude to have happened. …

How Volatile Was 2018 Really?

This chart shows the average move size for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P Index back as far as 1901 for the Dow and 1928 for the S&P. …

Panic Selling

Here is an indicator I developed back in 2016 designed to detect panic selling that is so severe, it creates a crescendo wave. Here is the criteria: 4 out of …

Performance of Stocks Experiencing Buybacks

Yesterday, I wrote about equity flows and mentioned how corporations were buying back massive amounts of stock. I want to expand on that a bit. First, announced buybacks have set …

Worst December Start Since 1931? Not quite

It’s been a rough start to the month (unless you’re a subscriber to our Three Easy Factors service). As bad as it’s been, there have been some misleading stats bandied …

Fed Tightening During Market Weakness

For the past 35 years, it’s pretty rare for the Fed to tighten when the US stock market is as weak as it has been lately (S&P 500 is down …

My thoughts on the looming Fed meeting

As my long-term clients have known since way back in 1997 (when I first revealed my super-simple market timing system), I am a staunch believer in the power of the …