Emerging Markets Since October 30

Emerging Markets (green line) beating both the S&P 500 (purple) and the Euro Stoxx 50 (orange). With so many people betting on risk-off environment, it’s pretty counterintuitive that the riskiest …

VIX Implied Volatility is Very Low

VIX has come down from its recent peak. But the real story to me is what’s going on in the VIX options market. In the recent past, whenever VIX shot …

I think this is misguided

I like Vanguard. But this is ridiculous. Vanguard Won’t Let Investors Trade These Popular—but Controversial—Products Vanguard Group will no longer allow individual investors to make new trades on certain investments …

Breadth Thrust

This is a chart going back more than 50 years showing signals generated by an indicator developed by the late, great Marty Zweig. The indicator is a measure of market …

Be Careful What You Wish For

Money managers that hoped for more volatility so as to improve their chances of beating the market appear to have been severely disappointed when the volatility finally arrived. As this …

“Don’t Fight the Fed”

In the immortal words of Marty Zweig, “Don’t Fight the Fed”. And the markets didn’t, which is why oil, lumber, interest rates and stocks all cratered to Powell’s tin-eared comment …

Mr. Powell Gets a Surprise

This awesome chart (courtesy of MetaStock) showing the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the G10. These indices compare actual data to Bloomberg Survey expectations. They have Economic Surprise indices for …

Lumber Liquidation

It’s not just oil that got hammered last year. Just think what has to be going on in the economy for a price collapse of that magnitude to have happened. …

How Volatile Was 2018 Really?

This chart shows the average move size for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P Index back as far as 1901 for the Dow and 1928 for the S&P. …